White Smoke
3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 54
Bellewstown · Johnny Sullivan Memorial Maiden · 5f 3y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Dundalk | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Dundalk | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Navan | BHA67 | 7th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Bellewstown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Naas | BHA79 | 12th | 12th | +0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Cork | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 93% | +0.12 |
| 08/10/2025 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 69% | -0.25 |
| 05/11/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 04/04/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 09/05/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 03/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 11/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 73% | +0.15 |
| 25/09/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 54% | +0.01 |