In The Gloaming
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 63
Bellewstown · Johnny Sullivan Memorial Maiden · 0m 5f 3y
#11
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 8.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Down Royal | BHA63 | 13th | 11th | +2 |
| 2026-09-25 | Dundalk | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-09-04 | Down Royal | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA69 | 18th | 17th | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Navan | BHA72 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Cork | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/06/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 31/07/2026 | 18th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 25/09/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 69% | -0.10 |
| 28/09/2026 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |