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7

Happy Henry

5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 67

Bellewstown · Gannon City Recovery & Recycling Handicap · 5f 3y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

29%

Place Prob

33%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improved model this year, winning handicaps at Navan in June and over C&D in July. Went without his usual headgear and ran up to best when third of 16 at former track (5f, good) 4 weeks ago. Cheekpieces reapplied.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA46 @ Sligo 03/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 46 · 6f61y Sft 128 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 46 par3/0546OR 46BHA49 @ Navan 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR 49 · 5f180y Yie 132 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 49 parBHA49 @ Fairyhouse 28/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 49 · 6f25y Gd 131 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 49 par28/0549OR 49BHA50 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 21 · OR 50 · 5f Goo 120 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 50 parBHA58 @ Naas 24/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 21 · OR 58 · 5f Gd 140 · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 58 par24/0658OR 58BHA58 @ Bellewstown 03/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 58 · 5f3y Gd 140 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 58 parBHA67 @ Curragh 18/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 67 · 5f Goo 127 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 67 par18/0767OR 67BHA67 @ Curragh 16/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 67 · 5f Goo 137 · below its mark16/08/2026 · OR 67 parBHA66 @ Navan 02/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 66 · 5f Goo 126 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 66 par2/0966OR 66projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02NavanBHA663rd3rd0
2026-08-16CurraghBHA679th9th0
2026-07-18CurraghBHA675th5th0
2026-07-03BellewstownBHA581st1st0
2026-06-24NaasBHA583rd3rd0
2026-06-07NavanBHA501st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/057/0618/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength82%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/05/20262nd9/276%92%+0.16
16/05/20263rd7/282%88%+0.06
28/05/20263rd5/174%88%+0.15
07/06/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
24/06/20263rd11/271%90%+0.19
03/07/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
18/07/20265th10/147%76%+0.29
16/08/20269th10/382%20%-0.62
02/09/20263rd10/147%87%+0.39