IvyArcIvyArc
4

Nouvel Espoir

6yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 70

Bellewstown · Gannon City Recovery & Recycling Handicap · 5f 3y

#4

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took advantage of easing mark when winning at Down Royal in June. Has made the frame all 5 starts since, again not beaten far when second of 17 at Fairyhouse (6f, good) last week. Looks sure to go well again with Colin Keane retaining the ride.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: BHA61
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA66 @ Navan 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 66 · 5f Yie 121 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 66 par16/0566OR 66BHA64 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 64 · 5f180y Goo 125 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 64 parBHA63 @ Cork 14/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 63 · 5f Gd 125 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 63 par14/0663OR 63BHA61 @ Down Royal 19/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 61 · 5f Sft 131 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 61 parBHA67 @ Naas 04/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 67 · 5f Goo 137 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 67 par4/0767OR 67BHA67 @ Curragh 18/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 67 · 5f Goo 127 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 67 parBHA67 @ Curragh 09/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 67 · 6f GF 127 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 67 par9/0867OR 67BHA64 @ Cork 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 22 · OR 64 · 6f Goo 126 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 64 parBHA66 @ Fairyhouse 21/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR 66 · 6f Goo 136 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 66 par21/0966OR 66projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21FairyhouseBHA662nd2nd0
2026-09-09CorkBHA642nd2nd0
2026-08-09CurraghBHA673rd3rd0
2026-07-18CurraghBHA674th4th0
2026-07-04NaasBHA674th4th0
2026-06-19Down RoyalBHA611st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0519/069/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +9.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/05/20263rd13/266%78%+0.12
07/06/20266th15/261%38%-0.23
14/06/20264th11/271%67%-0.04
19/06/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
04/07/20264th8/158%73%+0.15
18/07/20264th22/10%82%+0.82
09/08/20263rd14/126%85%+0.58
09/09/20262nd16/116%95%+0.79
21/09/20262nd6/168%94%+0.25