Ah Ca Ira
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 70
Belmont Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-03-08 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 29/11/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 01/01/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 15/02/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 08/03/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/04/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |