Pistol Liz Ablazen
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 76
Belmont Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-03-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 23/10/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 20/11/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 28/12/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 27/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 28/03/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 10/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/07/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |