1
Securitylightning
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 70
Belmont Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 44% | -0.44 |
| 30/01/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 27/02/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 11/03/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 56% | -0.21 |
| 12/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |