2
Combat Move
3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 75
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength6%
Delivery trend -25.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 19/08/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 14% | -0.52 |