3
Dangerous Affair
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 92
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
79%
Place Prob
53%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-18 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-04-10 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-01-25 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2024-12-15 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2024-11-17 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2024-10-26 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength94%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06/2024 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 03/08/2024 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 26/10/2024 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 17/11/2024 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 82% | +0.06 |
| 15/12/2024 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 25/01/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 10/04/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 18/05/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |