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5

Kaz Farm Girl

3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 69

Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength7%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Aqueduct 22/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 6f 11922/11C6C6 @ Aqueduct 10/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 66 · 6f 122 · beat its mark10/01/2026 · OR 66 parC6 @ Aqueduct 12/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 64 · 1m 122 · beat its mark12/02/2026 · OR 64 par12/02C6OR 64C6 @ Aqueduct 12/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 63 · 6f Slo 120 · below its mark12/03/2026 · OR 63 parC6 @ Aqueduct 27/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 61 · 6f110y 122 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 61 par27/03C6OR 61C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 09/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 62 · 6f 121 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 62 parC9 @ Belmont At The Big A 18/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 65 · 6f 121 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 65 par18/06C9OR 65C7 @ Saratoga 26/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 65 · 7f 122 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 65 par26/08C7OR 65projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Saratoga?1st3rd−2
2026-06-18Belmont At The Big A?1st5th−4
2026-05-09Belmont At The Big A?4th5th−1
2026-03-27Aqueduct?5th6th−1
2026-03-12Aqueduct?6th7th−1
2026-02-12Aqueduct?3rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/1112/0318/0626/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength91%

Delivery trend +3.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/11/20255th10/147%33%-0.14
10/01/20263rd16/116%78%+0.62
12/02/20263rd11/486%67%-0.19
12/03/20266th7/282%0%-0.82
27/03/20265th16/116%43%+0.27
09/05/20264th16/116%50%+0.34
18/06/20261st1/499%100%+0.01
26/08/20261st7/163%100%+0.37