8
Material Girl
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 79
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-02-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2024-12-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2024-11-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2024-10-05 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength97%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2024 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 03/11/2024 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 82% | -0.08 |
| 14/12/2024 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 90% | +0.64 |
| 28/02/2025 | 2nd | 4/9 | 98% | 80% | -0.18 |
| 16/05/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |