4
Sheza Bernardini
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 79
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-20 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-07-11 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-06-20 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-05-09 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2025-04-03 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2025-03-07 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength41%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2024 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 15/10/2024 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 12/11/2024 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 07/03/2025 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 03/04/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 09/05/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 20/06/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 11/07/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 20/07/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |