Chess Match
3yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 69
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-05-07 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-04-11 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +12.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 11/04/2026 | 4th | 6/5 | 94% | 25% | -0.69 |
| 07/05/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 14/05/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 17/07/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |