Easemyworriedmind

3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 56

Belmont Park · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 7f

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-06	Saratoga	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-06-26	Belmont At The Big A	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-05-01	Belmont At The Big A	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0
2026-03-29	Aqueduct	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength45%

Delivery trend +28.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
29/03/2026	4th	7/2	82%	25%	-0.57
01/05/2026	8th	12/1	37%	0%	-0.37
26/06/2026	7th	8/1	58%	0%	-0.58
06/08/2026	7th	33/1	0%	45%	+0.45