IvyArcIvyArc
9

In Front Runner

3yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 68

Belmont Park · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 7f

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼3
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 20/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 1m110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS20/03C6C6 @ Saratoga 16/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 73 · 1m Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 73 par16/07C6OR 73C6 @ Saratoga 07/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 72 · 1m110y Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/08/2026 · OR 72 par7/08C6OR 72projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-07Saratoga?11th8th+3
2026-07-16Saratoga?6th3rd+3
2026-03-20Gulfstream?4th1st+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0316/077/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength16%

Delivery trend -24.0% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/03/20264th20/10%57%+0.57
16/07/20266th4/179%0%-0.79
07/08/202611th40/10%9%+0.09