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2

Grace And Grit

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 82

Belmont Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Aqueduct 26/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 90 · 1m1f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 90 par26/12C5OR 90C5 @ Aqueduct 05/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 89 · 6f110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/02/2026 · OR 89 parC8 @ Aqueduct 14/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 80 · 1m 126 · beat its mark14/03/2026 · OR 80 par14/03C8OR 80C7 @ Aqueduct 10/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 81 · 1m 126 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 81 parC7 @ Belmont At The Big A 08/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 81 · 7f 126 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 81 par8/05C7OR 81C5 @ Saratoga 05/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 87 · 7f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 87 parC5 @ Saratoga 04/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 82 · 6f110y Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 82 par4/07C5OR 82C6 @ Saratoga 02/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 83 · 6f110y Fas 126 · below its mark02/08/2026 · OR 83 parC6 @ Saratoga 02/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 82 · 6f110y Slo 126 · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 82 par2/09C6OR 82projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Saratoga?5th5th0
2026-08-02Saratoga?2nd2nd0
2026-07-04Saratoga?1st0th+1
2026-06-05Saratoga?2nd1st+1
2026-05-08Belmont At The Big A?1st2nd−1
2026-04-10Aqueduct?2nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/1210/044/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength59%

Delivery trend +2.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/12/20254th11/893%50%-0.43
05/02/20266th7/282%29%-0.53
14/03/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
10/04/20262nd11/486%80%-0.06
08/05/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
05/06/20262nd5/287%86%-0.01
04/07/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
02/08/20262nd9/276%80%+0.04
02/09/20265th2/189%43%-0.47