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Lady Rose

3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 87

Belmont Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Aqueduct 07/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 6f110y Fas 1197/11C7C7 @ Aqueduct 28/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 62 · 1m 119 · beat its mark28/11/2025 · OR 62 par28/11C7OR 62C7 @ Belmont At The Big A 14/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 71 · 1m Fas 123 · below its mark14/05/2026 · OR 71 par14/05C7OR 71C7 @ Belmont At The Big A 18/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 80 · 7f 121 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 80 par18/06C7OR 80C5 @ Saratoga 31/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 86 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 86 par31/07C5OR 86C5 @ Saratoga 15/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 86 · 1m Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 86 par15/08C5OR 86C5 @ Saratoga 21/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 87 · 1m1f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 87 par21/08C5OR 87projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Saratoga?2nd1st+1
2026-08-15Saratoga?1st0th+1
2026-07-31Saratoga?4th3rd+1
2026-06-18Belmont At The Big A?1st2nd−1
2026-05-14Belmont At The Big A?2nd3rd−1
2025-11-28Aqueduct?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/1118/0621/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength78%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/11/20253rd11/271%71%+0.00
28/11/20251st9/153%100%+0.47
14/05/20262nd8/1196%75%-0.21
18/06/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
31/07/20264th8/158%50%-0.08
15/08/20261st5/696%100%+0.04
21/08/20262nd6/168%83%+0.15