Midtown Lights
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 81
Belmont Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +9.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2025 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 30/08/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 13/10/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 63% | -0.24 |
| 08/11/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 22/11/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 12/03/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 19/08/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |