Caldo Candy
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 97
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-31 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 12/04/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |
| 08/06/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 31/07/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 20/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 06/06/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |