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Sculcos Folly

3yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 95

Belmont Park · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 2.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Monmouth Park 26/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR - · 5f Fas 11826/07C9C8 @ Laurel Park 09/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 44 · 6f Fas 115 · beat its mark09/11/2025 · OR 44 parC6 @ Laurel Park 09/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 55 · 5f110y 121 · beat its mark09/01/2026 · OR 55 par9/01C6OR 55C7 @ Aqueduct 22/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 70 · 6f 123 · beat its mark22/01/2026 · OR 70 parC5 @ Aqueduct 07/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 83 · 1m 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/03/2026 · OR 83 par7/03C5OR 83C5 @ Aqueduct 11/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 89 · 6f110y 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 89 parC5 @ Saratoga 03/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 92 · 7f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 92 par3/06C5OR 92BHA94 @ Finger Lakes 13/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 94 · 1m110y Fas 124 · below its mark13/07/2026 · OR 94 parC5 @ Saratoga 29/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 97 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 97 par29/08C5OR 97projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Saratoga?3rd3rd0
2026-07-13Finger LakesBHA942nd7th−4
2026-06-03Saratoga?1st0th+1
2026-04-11Aqueduct?1st0th+1
2026-03-07Aqueduct?1st0th+1
2026-01-22Aqueduct?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0722/013/0629/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength55%

Delivery trend -9.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/07/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
09/11/20251st20/10%100%+1.00
09/01/20262nd10/147%83%+0.36
22/01/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
07/03/20261st5/696%100%+0.04
11/04/20261st5/696%100%+0.04
03/06/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
13/07/20262nd1/195%67%-0.28
29/08/20263rd2/189%71%-0.18