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4

Baila Morena

2yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 51

Catterick · Racing To School Nursery · 5f 212y

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Standout effort when fourth of 15 in 6f maiden at Redcar in May and not figured either start in nurseries subsequently, merely plugging on when seventh of 16 at Thirsk (6f) last time. Cheekpieces go on for the first time now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength66%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 7.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Beverley 15/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 5f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS15/0455 @ Redcar 18/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR - · 5f217y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS18/0553 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR - · 6f Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS12/0636 @ Pontefract 07/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 56 · 6f Goo 126 · below its mark07/07/2026 · OR 56 par7/076OR 566 @ Thirsk 14/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 53 · 6f Goo 123 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 53 par14/096OR 53projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Thirsk67th7th0
2026-07-07Pontefract67th7th0
2026-06-12York312th8th+3
2026-05-18Redcar54th3rd+1
2026-04-15Beverley57th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0418/0512/067/0714/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength34%

Delivery trend -9.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/04/20267th80/10%40%+0.40
18/05/20264th40/10%79%+0.79
12/06/202612th4/179%21%-0.58
07/07/20267th13/266%14%-0.52
14/09/20267th20/10%60%+0.60