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Duchess Of Immatin

2yo Filly · 10-1 · OR 64

Catterick · Racing To School Nursery · 5f 212y

#1

Rank

Odds

6/5

Win Prob

87%

Place Prob

71%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Blue Point filly who has displayed race-by-race progress in trio of starts to date, benefiting from the return to 6f and holding chief market rival for largely hands-and-heels riding when successful in novice at Kempton (6f) 7 days ago. Looks well treated under a penalty switched to a nursery.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength85%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.1 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ffos Las 27/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 6f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS27/0844 @ Windsor 14/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 5f21y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS14/0944 @ Kempton 23/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 64 · 6f Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/09/2026 · OR 64 par23/094OR 64projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23Kempton41st-1th+2
2026-09-14Windsor44th2nd+2
2026-08-27Ffos Las44th2nd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0814/0923/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +22.1% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/08/20264th11/271%40%-0.31
14/09/20264th7/163%67%+0.04
23/09/20261st5/287%100%+0.13