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Johns Power

2yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 52

Catterick · Racing To School Nursery · 5f 212y

#3

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Perfect Power colt who has posted his best efforts here to date, latterly when keeping on for third in a C&D nursery 3 weeks ago. Assessor eases his grip a little more ahead of this but he needs to find improvement in any case if he's to figure.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ripon 18/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 6f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS18/0654 @ Newcastle 25/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 6f Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS25/0645 @ Catterick 15/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 5f GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS15/0756 @ Beverley 13/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 56 · 5f Goo 126 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 56 par13/086OR 566 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 54 · 6f1y Std 129 · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 54 par2/096OR 546 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 54 · 5f212y Goo 124 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 54 par8/096OR 54projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Catterick63rd3rd0
2026-09-02Newcastle611th11th0
2026-08-13Beverley67th7th0
2026-07-15Catterick54th3rd+1
2026-06-25Newcastle46th4th+2
2026-06-18Ripon510th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0625/0615/0713/082/098/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.4% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/06/202610th18/15%10%+0.05
25/06/20266th150/10%17%+0.17
15/07/20264th80/10%67%+0.67
13/08/20267th12/137%33%-0.04
02/09/202611th17/255%0%-0.55
08/09/20263rd25/10%71%+0.71