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6

Redrosecastana

2yo Gelding · 8-4 · OR 45

Catterick · Racing To School Nursery · 5f 212y

#4

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Mehmas gelding out of a 2-y-o 5f/6f winner. Big prices and offered little in a trio of turf/all-weather maiden/novice events in recent months. Does now get a crack at handicaps from basement mark but plenty of improvement required if he's to feature.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 8.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 6f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS8/0854 @ Catterick 26/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 5f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS26/0845 @ Wolverhampton 15/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 6f20y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS15/095projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Wolverhampton59th8th+1
2026-08-26Catterick47th5th+2
2026-08-08Ayr59th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0826/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength20%

Delivery trend +5.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/08/20269th28/10%0%0.00
26/08/20267th150/10%14%+0.14
15/09/20269th125/10%11%+0.11