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4

Gold Key

2yo Colt · 9-7

Catterick · EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f 6y

#3

Rank

Odds

15/8

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

€62,000 Palace Pier colt who wasn't seen to best effect on debut and duly left that form well behind when second in 5-runner novice at Thirsk (7f) last month, quickening entering straight and headed final 100 yds. Should continue to go the right way.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR - · 6f Sta 13025/0743 @ Thirsk 14/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 7f Goo 13314/083projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 3
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-14Thirsk32nd2nd0
2026-07-25Newcastle49th10th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0714/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +36.5% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/07/20269th22/10%38%+0.38
14/08/20262nd20/10%75%+0.75