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7

Rupert The Brave

2yo Colt · 9-7 · OR 82

Catterick · EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f 6y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

75%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Progressive son of Phoenix Of Spain who ran well in a first-time tongue strap when third of 9 in novice at Kempton (7f) 16 days ago, forcing a brisk gallop and losing out only late on. Feasible to think he could take some pegging back off the front around here from low draw.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 7f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS1/0823 @ Newbury 14/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 1m Goo 13314/0833 @ Kempton 14/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 7f Sta 13014/093projClass-projected finish: 1st of 3
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Kempton33rd3rd0
2026-08-14Newbury33rd3rd0
2026-08-01Goodwood29th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0814/0814/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength71%

Delivery trend -17.3% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/08/20269th33/10%33%+0.33
14/08/20263rd11/142%67%+0.25
14/09/20263rd9/276%75%-0.01