IvyArcIvyArc
7

Neddies Boy

8yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 45

Catterick · Watch All Races Live On RacingTV Handicap · 1m 7f 189y

#8

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair winner on all-weather in Ireland but failed to beat a rival in 4 starts for this yard last year. After a further 7 months off, shaped as if needing the run when sixth of 9 at Newcastle (12.5f) 27 days ago, but still has enough to prove.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength22%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 7.6)

Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA58 @ Dundalk 15/03/2024 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 58 · 1m4f Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/03/2024 · OR 58 par15/0358OR 58BHA58 @ Leopardstown 17/05/2024 · Pos 10th of 21 · OR 58 · 1m4f Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2024 · OR 58 parC8 @ Limerick 12/06/2024 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 55 · 1m3f110y GF 136 · below its mark12/06/2024 · OR 55 par12/06C8OR 556 @ Newcastle 04/03/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 57 · 1m4f98y Std 133 · below its mark04/03/2025 · OR 57 par6 @ Newcastle 25/03/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 55 · 1m2f42y Std 130 · below its mark25/03/2025 · OR 55 par25/036OR 556 @ Ayr 28/04/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 52 · 1m5f26y Gd 128 · below its mark28/04/2025 · OR 52 par6 @ Kempton 11/06/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 49 · 1m2f219y Sta 124 · beat its mark11/06/2025 · OR 49 par11/066OR 496 @ Newcastle 15/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 47 · 1m4f98y Std 128 · beat its mark15/02/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 46 · 1m4f98y Std 127 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 46 par3/096OR 46projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Newcastle66th6th0
2026-02-15Newcastle68th8th0
2025-06-11Kempton612th12th0
2025-04-28Ayr610th10th0
2025-03-25Newcastle67th7th0
2025-03-04Newcastle66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/034/0311/063/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -5.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/03/20245th13/266%69%+0.03
17/05/202410th8/158%55%-0.03
12/06/20247th14/126%40%+0.14
04/03/20256th16/116%0%-0.16
25/03/20257th16/116%0%-0.16
28/04/202510th40/10%0%0.00
11/06/202512th14/126%0%-0.26
15/02/20268th10/147%13%-0.35
03/09/20266th4/179%38%-0.41