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5

Soham's Roger

4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 47

Catterick · Watch All Races Live On RacingTV Handicap · 1m 7f 189y

#9

Rank

Odds

100/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed a bit more on his third start last year but little promise in a trio of handicaps since, eleventh of 12 at Beverley (1¼m) 8 days ago. Looks to be up against it over this significantly longer distance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 8.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Thirsk 02/07/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 7f218y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS2/0754 @ Thirsk 02/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 7f218y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS2/0845 @ Hamilton 12/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 1m68y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS12/0856 @ Redcar 27/10/2025 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 51 · 1m2f1y Goo 127 · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 51 par27/106OR 516 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 49 · 1m5y Std 131 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 49 par2/096OR 496 @ Beverley 22/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 47 · 1m1f207y Gd 130 · beat its mark22/09/2026 · OR 47 par22/096OR 47projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22Beverley611th11th0
2026-09-02Newcastle69th9th0
2025-10-27Redcar612th12th0
2025-08-12Hamilton54th3rd+1
2025-08-02Thirsk47th5th+2
2025-07-02Thirsk510th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/072/0812/0827/102/0922/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength8%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/07/202510th300/10%0%0.00
02/08/20257th200/10%14%+0.14
12/08/20254th250/10%25%+0.25
27/10/202512th66/10%8%+0.08
02/09/20269th100/10%0%0.00
22/09/202611th100/10%9%+0.09