3
Sugarpiehoneybunch
8yo Mare · 9-9 · OR 52
Catterick · Watch All Races Live On RacingTV Handicap · 1m 7f 189y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
77%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Catterick | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hamilton | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Beverley | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Leicester | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-01 | Catterick | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-15 | Thirsk | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2024 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 05/06/2025 | 1st | 28/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 17/07/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 67% | +0.61 |
| 15/09/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 01/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 28/10/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 45% | +0.19 |
| 15/04/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 04/06/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |