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6

Lady Gormire

3yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 72

Catterick · Bet At racingtv.com Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 6y

#2

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

34%

Place Prob

35%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Placed at this course on first 3 starts of the season, before comfortably winning a C&D maiden last month. Shaped as if possibly amiss when well held at Chester 19 days ago, but a better showing wouldn't surprise back here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength61%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Haydock 03/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS3/0732 @ Doncaster 12/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 7f6y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Catterick 21/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 5f212y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS21/0544 @ Catterick 11/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 70 · 5f212y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Catterick 08/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 68 · 7f6y GF 129 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 68 par8/075OR 685 @ Epsom Downs 30/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 69 · 6f3y GF 135 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 69 par4 @ Catterick 26/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 68 · 7f6y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 68 par26/084OR 685 @ Chester 11/09/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 72 · 7f1y Goo 131 · below its mark11/09/2026 · OR 72 par11/095OR 72projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Chester513th13th0
2026-08-26Catterick41st0th+1
2026-07-30Epsom Downs55th5th0
2026-07-08Catterick52nd2nd0
2026-06-11Catterick43rd2nd+1
2026-05-21Catterick42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0711/0626/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -9.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/07/20252nd11/271%89%+0.18
12/09/20258th33/10%22%+0.22
21/05/20262nd6/168%80%+0.12
11/06/20263rd16/583%71%-0.12
08/07/20262nd6/168%80%+0.12
30/07/20265th3/184%33%-0.51
26/08/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
11/09/202613th13/266%0%-0.66