5
Masaban
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 72
Catterick · Bet At racingtv.com Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 6y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
62%
Place Prob
47%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Musselburgh | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Redcar | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Catterick | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Pontefract | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Doncaster | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ripon | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength80%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 15/08/2025 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 36% | +0.31 |
| 24/04/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 62% | -0.02 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 85% | -0.11 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 08/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 12/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |