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3

Vince Lombardi

7yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 71

Catterick · Bet At racingtv.com Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 6y

#7

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won twice over 6f on all-weather towards end of last year and added to his tally at Wolverhampton (7f) in January. After 6 months off, shaped as if needing the outing when down the field at Carlisle 6 weeks ago, so this run should reveal more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Ayr 18/09/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 64 · 7f50y Goo 137 · below its mark18/09/2025 · OR 64 par18/096OR 646 @ Wolverhampton 11/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 62 · 6f20y Std 135 · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 62 par6 @ Southwell 03/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 65 · 6f16y Std 135 · beat its mark03/11/2025 · OR 65 par3/116OR 655 @ Southwell 28/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 68 · 6f16y Std 133 · beat its mark28/11/2025 · OR 68 par5 @ Wolverhampton 15/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 69 · 6f20y Std 129 · beat its mark15/12/2025 · OR 69 par15/125OR 695 @ Southwell 19/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 69 · 6f16y Std 132 · beat its mark19/12/2025 · OR 69 par5 @ Wolverhampton 19/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 71 · 7f36y Std 130 · beat its mark19/01/2026 · OR 71 par19/015OR 715 @ Southwell 11/02/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 72 · 6f16y Std 132 · below its mark11/02/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Carlisle 19/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 72 · 6f195y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 72 par19/084OR 72projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19Carlisle47th6th+1
2026-02-11Southwell510th10th0
2026-01-19Wolverhampton51st1st0
2025-12-19Southwell55th5th0
2025-12-15Wolverhampton52nd2nd0
2025-11-28Southwell52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0928/1119/0119/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength38%

Delivery trend +1.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/09/202514th16/116%0%-0.16
11/10/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
03/11/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
28/11/20252nd6/168%90%+0.22
15/12/20252nd9/153%91%+0.38
19/12/20255th9/488%43%-0.45
19/01/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
11/02/202610th12/137%10%-0.27
19/08/20267th66/10%33%+0.33