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Imperial Guard

5yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 74

Catterick · Bet At racingtv.com Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 6y

#6

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Down in the weights and completed a quick-fire Ayr hat-trick (7.2f) in July. However, found life tougher in a deeper race at Doncaster and never figured at Thirsk latest. Bounce back required.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 20/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 69 · 6f20y Std 132 · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 69 par20/105OR 695 @ Carlisle 18/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 67 · 5f Goo 127 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 67 par6 @ Thirsk 05/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 64 · 6f Gd 135 · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 64 par5/066OR 645 @ Thirsk 01/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 62 · 7f Goo 127 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Ayr 13/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 60 · 7f50y Goo 140 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 60 par13/076OR 606 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 60 · 7f50y GF 145 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 60 par4 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 67 · 7f50y Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 67 par27/074OR 675 @ Doncaster 15/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 75 · 7f6y GF 135 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Thirsk 05/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 75 · 7f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 75 par5/094OR 75projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Thirsk47th6th+1
2026-08-15Doncaster510th10th0
2026-07-27Ayr41st0th+1
2026-07-20Ayr61st2nd−1
2026-07-13Ayr61st2nd−1
2026-07-01Thirsk55th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/101/0727/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength3%

Delivery trend -0.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/10/20256th15/261%38%-0.23
18/05/20268th11/271%22%-0.49
05/06/20268th4/179%22%-0.57
01/07/20265th10/147%56%+0.08
13/07/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
20/07/20261st8/1597%100%+0.03
27/07/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
15/08/202610th11/271%18%-0.53
05/09/20267th9/276%14%-0.62