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5

Indefensible

3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 72

Catterick · Bet At racingtv.com Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 6y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

28%

Place Prob

28%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Resumed winning ways at Southwell earlier this month and shaped as if still in good form there (1m) 13 days ago, weakening last ½f having raced freely. Will be suited by this return to 7f.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength64%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Doncaster 02/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 72 · 7f213y Goo 132 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 72 par2/055OR 725 @ Thirsk 05/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 72 · 7f Gd 130 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Beverley 16/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 72 · 7f96y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 72 par16/064OR 725 @ Catterick 08/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 72 · 7f6y GF 135 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Ripon 18/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 71 · 6f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 71 par18/074OR 715 @ Redcar 19/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 71 · 7f Goo 131 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 71 par4 @ Thirsk 14/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 71 · 7f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 71 par14/084OR 715 @ Southwell 03/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 71 · 7f15y Std 131 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 71 par4 @ Southwell 17/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 72 · 1m13y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 72 par17/094OR 72projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Southwell44th3rd+1
2026-09-03Southwell51st1st0
2026-08-14Thirsk43rd2nd+1
2026-07-19Redcar51st1st0
2026-07-18Ripon43rd2nd+1
2026-07-08Catterick53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/058/0714/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength88%

Delivery trend +0.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/05/20267th14/126%25%-0.01
05/06/20262nd11/486%89%+0.03
16/06/20265th12/137%50%+0.13
08/07/20263rd25/10%75%+0.75
18/07/20263rd5/696%33%-0.62
19/07/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
14/08/20263rd22/10%71%+0.71
03/09/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
17/09/20264th6/168%25%-0.43