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2

Miss Willows

7yo Mare · 9-8 · OR 54

Catterick · racingtv.com Handicap · 5f 212y

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Pair of 7f wins last year. Standout effort this campaign when second of 14 at Beverley (7.4f) in June and shaped as if possibly amiss here just over 3 weeks ago. Down to her last winning mark but needs to show plenty more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Doncaster 24/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 57 · 7f213y Goo 127 · beat its mark24/07/2025 · OR 57 par24/076OR 576 @ Catterick 09/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 55 · 7f6y Goo 128 · beat its mark09/09/2025 · OR 55 par6 @ Redcar 24/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 54 · 7f Goo 129 · beat its mark24/09/2025 · OR 54 par24/096OR 546 @ Thirsk 10/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 57 · 7f Gd 132 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 57 par5 @ Ripon 03/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 57 · 6f Gd 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 57 par3/065OR 576 @ Beverley 16/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 55 · 7f96y Goo 138 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 55 par5 @ Thirsk 14/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 58 · 7f218y Goo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 58 par14/085OR 586 @ Catterick 26/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 57 · 5f212y Goo 134 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 56 · 7f6y Goo 131 · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 56 par8/096OR 56projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Catterick610th10th0
2026-08-26Catterick64th4th0
2026-08-14Thirsk58th7th+1
2026-06-16Beverley62nd2nd0
2026-06-03Ripon510th9th+1
2026-04-10Thirsk611th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0710/0414/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -7.7% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/07/20257th28/10%40%+0.40
09/09/20255th9/153%60%+0.07
24/09/20251st11/142%100%+0.58
10/04/202611th25/10%23%+0.23
03/06/202610th28/10%0%0.00
16/06/20262nd11/142%92%+0.50
14/08/20268th50/10%50%+0.50
26/08/20264th4/179%25%-0.54
08/09/202610th11/142%10%-0.32