10
Mister Sky Blue
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 45
Catterick · racingtv.com Handicap · 5f 212y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Catterick | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Catterick | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Beverley | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Thirsk | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Catterick | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ripon | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.0% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 45% | -0.33 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 01/07/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 53% | -0.18 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 12/08/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 26/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |