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4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 46

Catterick · racingtv.com Handicap · 5f 212y

#6

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Remains a maiden but has made the frame 4 times this season, including when beaten only a neck over C&D in July. Best excused the effort when last of 14 at Newcastle (6f) just under 6 weeks ago, denied a clear run from 2f out.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 01/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 63 · 7f14y Std 135 · beat its mark01/11/2025 · OR 63 par1/116OR 636 @ Newcastle 18/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 60 · 7f14y Std 135 · beat its mark18/11/2025 · OR 60 par5 @ Newcastle 09/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 57 · 1m5y Std 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/12/2025 · OR 57 par9/125OR 576 @ Newcastle 01/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 54 · 1m5y Std 130 · below its mark01/01/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Carlisle 15/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 45 · 5f182y Goo 126 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 45 par15/066OR 456 @ Catterick 22/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 45 · 5f212y GF 121 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Musselburgh 31/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 45 · 7f15y Gd 126 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 45 par31/076OR 456 @ Catterick 04/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 48 · 7f6y Goo 135 · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Newcastle 20/08/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 50 · 6f Std 125 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 50 par20/086OR 50projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20Newcastle614th14th0
2026-08-04Catterick64th4th0
2026-07-31Musselburgh63rd3rd0
2026-07-22Catterick62nd2nd0
2026-06-15Carlisle63rd3rd0
2026-01-01Newcastle611th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/111/0131/0720/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -10.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/11/20254th33/10%50%+0.50
18/11/20258th28/10%30%+0.30
09/12/20256th50/10%29%+0.29
01/01/202611th33/10%0%0.00
15/06/20263rd28/10%75%+0.75
22/07/20262nd9/276%83%+0.07
31/07/20263rd11/486%67%-0.19
04/08/20264th11/486%50%-0.36
20/08/202614th12/137%0%-0.37