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5yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 77

Catterick · Amstel Gallop Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 13y

#1

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

78%

Place Prob

54%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Perfect start for new yard with cheekpieces refitted when successful at Ripon in May and placed next 3 starts over this trip, latterly when second over C&D in July. Patently failed to stay upped to 17f at Pontefract next time but given plenty of time ahead of this and bounce back likely.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Southwell 01/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 76 · 1m4f14y Std 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/01/2026 · OR 76 par1/013OR 765 @ Kempton 04/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 74 · 1m2f219y Sta 137 · beat its mark04/02/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Yarmouth 11/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 75 · 1m2f23y Gd 130 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 75 par11/044OR 754 @ Doncaster 25/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 74 · 1m3f197y Goo 124 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Ripon 28/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 73 · 1m4f10y Goo 132 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 73 par28/055OR 734 @ Pontefract 08/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 77 · 1m4f5y Goo 130 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Ripon 17/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 77 · 1m4f10y Gd 131 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 77 par17/064OR 774 @ Catterick 22/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 77 · 1m4f13y GF 136 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Pontefract 05/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR 77 · 2m1f27y Goo 141 · below its mark05/08/2026 · OR 77 par5/084OR 77projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-05Pontefract43rd3rd0
2026-07-22Catterick42nd2nd0
2026-06-17Ripon43rd3rd0
2026-06-08Pontefract42nd2nd0
2026-05-28Ripon51st2nd−1
2026-04-25Doncaster43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0125/0417/065/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength13%

Delivery trend -7.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/01/20265th12/137%43%+0.06
04/02/20262nd3/184%92%+0.07
11/04/20268th10/147%42%-0.06
25/04/20263rd10/147%60%+0.13
28/05/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
08/06/20262nd9/276%67%-0.10
17/06/20263rd3/184%60%-0.24
22/07/20262nd11/271%67%-0.04
05/08/20263rd4/179%0%-0.79