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6

Wardlaw

3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 76

Catterick · Amstel Gallop Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 13y

#2

Rank

Odds

15/8

Win Prob

17%

Place Prob

26%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Quirky sort who still looked a work in progress when gaining first win at Beverley (1½m) in August. Matched that in finishing second both starts since, latterly at Kempton (11f) 7 days ago but his slow starting has to be something of a concern, not least around here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 30/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 7f14y Std 13330/0955 @ Kempton 15/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 1m Sta 1335 @ Windsor 18/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 71 · 1m3f99y Goo 132 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 71 par18/055OR 714 @ Lingfield 01/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 68 · 1m4f Std 126 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Sandown 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 68 · 1m6f Gd 129 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 68 par12/065OR 685 @ Doncaster 26/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR 70 · 1m6f115y GF 135 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Beverley 13/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 69 · 1m4f23y Goo 133 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 69 par13/085OR 694 @ Thirsk 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 76 · 1m4f8y Goo 129 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ Kempton 23/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 76 · 1m2f219y Sta 132 · beat its mark23/09/2026 · OR 76 par23/094OR 76projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23Kempton42nd2nd0
2026-09-05Thirsk42nd2nd0
2026-08-13Beverley51st2nd−1
2026-06-26Doncaster53rd4th−1
2026-06-12Sandown52nd3rd−1
2026-06-01Lingfield42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/091/0613/0823/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength57%

Delivery trend -6.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/09/20255th150/10%0%0.00
15/10/20254th250/10%75%+0.75
18/05/20265th14/126%33%+0.07
01/06/20262nd17/255%75%+0.20
12/06/20262nd4/179%67%-0.12
26/06/20263rd1/195%0%-0.95
13/08/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
05/09/20262nd11/893%83%-0.09
23/09/20262nd15/890%86%-0.04