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Loco Lobo

8yo Mare · 10-2 · OR 45

Catterick · Racing Again 17th October Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 5f

#8

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Proved she retains ability after a 9-month absence when third of 5 in handicap at Bath (5f, heavy) last September. Not seen since but clearly capable of going well fresh.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Haydock 22/07/2023 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 47 · 5f Sft 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/07/2023 · OR 47 par22/075OR 476 @ Wolverhampton 09/09/2023 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 55 · 5f21y Std 135 · below its mark09/09/2023 · OR 55 par5 @ Haydock 27/04/2024 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 54 · 6f Sft 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/04/2024 · OR 54 par27/045OR 545 @ Haydock 04/07/2024 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 53 · 5f Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2024 · OR 53 par5 @ Haydock 20/07/2024 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 53 · 5f Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/07/2024 · OR 53 par20/075OR 536 @ Wolverhampton 07/10/2024 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 50 · 5f21y Std 123 · beat its mark07/10/2024 · OR 50 par6 @ Bath 21/10/2024 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 48 · 5f10y Sft 133 · beat its mark21/10/2024 · OR 48 par21/106OR 486 @ Southwell 19/12/2024 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 48 · 4f214y Std 123 · beat its mark19/12/2024 · OR 48 par6 @ Bath 03/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 47 · 5f10y Hvy 118 · beat its mark03/09/2025 · OR 47 par3/096OR 47projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-09-03Bath63rd3rd0
2024-12-19Southwell610th10th0
2024-10-21Bath62nd2nd0
2024-10-07Wolverhampton67th7th0
2024-07-20Haydock510th9th+1
2024-07-04Haydock58th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/074/0721/103/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength45%

Delivery trend -6.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/07/20231st66/10%100%+1.00
09/09/202311th14/126%0%-0.26
27/04/20244th50/10%73%+0.73
04/07/20248th14/126%0%-0.26
20/07/202410th25/10%0%0.00
07/10/20247th50/10%14%+0.14
21/10/20242nd3/184%75%-0.09
19/12/202410th40/10%18%+0.18
03/09/20253rd11/142%50%+0.08