Mayflower Rock
3yo Filly · 10-3 · OR 48
Catterick · Racing Again 17th October Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 5f
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Ffos Las | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Yarmouth | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Yarmouth | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Yarmouth | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Windsor | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -10.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 11/05/2026 | 4th | 100/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 02/06/2026 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/07/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 14/08/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.26 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |