5
Giacosa
8yo Gelding · 10-5
Compiegne · Prix De La Gascogne Chase (grade 3) · 2m 2f 195y
#7
Rank
Odds
13/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲8
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -7.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Compiegne | 2 | 6th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-04-07 | Compiegne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-03-16 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-01-07 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-12-16 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | BHA114 | 7th | 20th | −11 |
| 2024-11-30 | Auteuil | BHA114 | 11th | 24th | −11 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength27%
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/2024 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 73% | +0.07 |
| 11/04/2024 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 27/04/2024 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 30/11/2024 | 11th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 16/12/2024 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 07/01/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 92% | +0.39 |
| 16/03/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 07/04/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 09/09/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |