6
La Marche Bleue
7yo Gelding · 10-5
Compiegne · Prix De La Gascogne Chase (grade 3) · 2m 2f 195y
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 1.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 3
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Auteuil | 3 | −2 | ||
| 2026-05-30 | Auteuil | 1 | +0 | ||
| 2026-05-02 | Auteuil | 1 | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Auteuil | 1 | +0 | ||
| 2025-11-16 | Auteuil | ? | +0 | ||
| 2025-10-07 | Auteuil | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength25%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2022 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 88% | -0.02 |
| 27/01/2023 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 25/02/2023 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 19/03/2023 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 73% | -0.04 |
| 08/04/2023 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 21/05/2023 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 90% | +0.32 |
| 13/09/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 07/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 75% | +0.20 |