6
Duela Dent
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 70
Delaware Park · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-06 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength13%
Delivery trend -6.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 14/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 08/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 06/11/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 25% | -0.65 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 80% | -0.15 |