4
Miguel's Belle
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 84
Delaware Park · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength30%
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 29/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |