Break Of Dawn

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 63

Delaware Park · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▲2

Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C8.5

Today:

Class gap: -2.0

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-11	Delaware Park	?	1st	3rd	−2	6.6
2026-06-27	Delaware Park	?	5th	7th	−2	2.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +46.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
27/06/2026	5th	12/1	37%	43%	+0.06
11/07/2026	1st	10/1	47%	100%	+0.53