14
Aibell
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 81
Delaware Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-03-08 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1794% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength90%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2024 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 08/03/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 01/04/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 70% | -0.17 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 16/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 91% | +0.22 |