11
Authentic Angel
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 74
Delaware Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Keeneland | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1769% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength52%
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 09/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 30/10/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 23/11/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 26/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 03/04/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 10/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 25/05/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.26 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |