7
Bint Mischief
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 82
Delaware Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1788% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength52%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 63% | -0.28 |
| 20/12/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 30/01/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 05/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 86% | -0.09 |
| 19/04/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 06/08/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 70% | -0.19 |
| 06/09/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 64% | -0.28 |