3
Hotter Than Fire
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 83
Delaware Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
90%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-15 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-07-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 17100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength96%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/11 | 96% | 67% | -0.30 |
| 10/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.13 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 16/09/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 82% | +0.16 |